The political fortunes of President Asif Ali Zardari and key members of his cabinet are under a cloud following the landmark decision of the Pakistan Supreme Court to strike down the controversial National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO).
But most Pakistanis are happy. Babbar Sattar, a political analyst said: “Had the supreme court not struck down the NRO, we would have to rethink the foundational values on which are based our fundamental laws and our union as a nation.”
The NRO gave a blanket amnesty to politicians who otherwise were barred from contesting the 2008 general elections.
The biggest beneficiary of this amnesty, which was promulgated by then president General Pervez Musharraf, was the Pakistan Peoples Party, including its then chairperson Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari.
Following the SC’s decision, accountability courts have reopened cases against these politicians.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik was hauled up by a court this week and has applied for pre-arrest bail.
Defence minister Ahmad Mukhtar was not allowed to leave the country on grounds that he is facing an NRO case — a move that has embarrassed the government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani.
247 politicians and bureaucrats cannot leave the country till they clear their name.
But the biggest name under the cloud is that of Zardari himself.
Two questions keep surfacing over the President’s political future: whether he would be able to weather the storm and whether he will emerge unscathed and if not, who will be Pakistan’s next president.
The Zardari camp seems confident. On Saturday, the Central Executive Committee of the PPP decided to defend all NRO cases in court. The meeting was attended both by Zardari and Gilani.
But appearances can be deceiving. The Zardari-Gilani combine is under pressure given that Gilani would be the biggest gainer if Zardari loses.
Today the Pakistan president is all powerful, and holds the power to dismiss an elected parliament under the controversial Article 58-2-B.
Despite several promises in the past to do so, he has not given this up “Without that clause, Zardari will be like a tiger without teeth,” comments analyst Aisha Siddiqa.
Also, Gilani is not “NRO-tainted.” He got his cases cleared through the judicial process and did not avail the amnesty offered by the NRO, as did opposition leader Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shabaz Sharif.
Now all three are sitting pretty as other politicians rush to hide their tracks and cover their backs.
The Sharif brothers, have, in the past, also stated that they are more happy to do business with Gilani, who seems less elusive when compared with Zardari. There are bigger issues at stake as well.
As Zardari assumed the chairmanship of the PPP and stuffed the Central Executive Committee with his loyalists, those who were close to Benazir Bhutto were sidelined.
These loyalists have gravitated towards Gilani. There is a strong possibility of Zardari being shown the door of the party leadership too if he loses control of the Presidency.
In all this, the Chief Justice is turning up the heat on Zardari.
Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry has his own axe to grind with Zardari — who delayed the reinstatement of the CJ till the opposition PML-N came out on the streets and the army had to step in. “There is no love loss between the two,” comments an analyst.
This week, after the NRO judgment, the Chief Justice will now head a bench that challenges the eligibility of many public office holders, including Zardari. This means more trouble for an already crumbling government.
In all this, the army has kept a respectful distance.
But the tension between the army and the Zardari government is at an all time high. Analysts cite the public announcement over the Kerry Lugar Bill following the Corps Commander conference earlier this year — which was in direct contradiction to the stand taken by the Zardari government.
The tension over Pakistan’s relations with the US between the army and the government becomes move evident with each passing day. Arif Nizami, a prominent newspaper editor, comments that in the past too, America has ditched democracy when it suited its interests. “We can see more of the same.”
In all this, there are many who speculate that Zardari may have to step down if he does not hand over his powers to dismiss the elected parliament.
Under pressure, he has already given up powers on control of the nuclear button. It seems Zardari’s political future does not look too bright.
However, in true Zardari style, he has not conceded defeat and is instead buying time by going into negotiations with political allies.
Earlier this week, Zardari made overtures to the MQM — in the hope that the Karachi based party would extend a much needed lifeline. On the NRO, the MQM had ditched the President.
Whatever the outcome, what is clear that there will be a period of political uncertainty in the country.
This at a time when the country needs strong political will to fight extremism and terrorism — which has shaken Pakistan this year. In all this, possibly the biggest loser will be the war against terrorism, say many......LINK
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